Four weeks in.
We started this newsletter to give our sphere something the headlines rarely offer: a ground-level, honest read on what is actually happening in Seattle real estate. You have been opening it, sharing it, and asking good questions. That is exactly what we hoped for. This week we are going deeper than ever, neighborhood by neighborhood and property type by property type. The picture that emerges might surprise you. Thanks for reading.
Henry & Akash
Seattle is not one real estate market right now. It is two, sorted by what you own. The median sale price for Seattle condominiums fell $44,000 year over year, from $699,678 in May 2025 to $655,656 in May 2026. Over the same period, single-family residential median sale prices held firm and in many neighborhoods appreciated.
Same city. Same mortgage rates. Same spring market. Two completely different stories depending on what you own, and what you are trying to buy.
For condo sellers, this means pricing discipline matters more than ever. For condo buyers, this is the most leverage you have had in years. For single-family owners, the fundamentals are still working in your favor. Want to search available listings right now? Browse current Seattle listings on our site.
Source: NWMLS, Seattle city, condominium, May 2025 vs May 2026 median sale price
Iran is close to a deal. Rates dipped. Do not get too excited yet.
30-Yr Fixed (MND) 6.55% June 16, 2026 · one-month low | Months of Supply 3.44 King County · still a seller's market |
President Trump announced a framework deal with Iran this week and both sides are close to signing in Switzerland. Mortgage rates dipped to a one-month low on the news before the ink is even dry. Before the conflict began in late February, the 30-year fixed was sitting at 5.99%. It climbed as high as 6.75% in May as oil prices pushed inflation higher. Now it is heading back down, slowly.
The honest read: getting rates back to pre-conflict levels will take longer than people expect. May CPI came in at 4.2%, the highest in over three years. The Fed is hawkish. A rate hike is now being priced in by some bond market participants for later this year. The direction is positive but do not pencil in 5% rates for your fall purchase plan.
Meanwhile Lennar spent 14% of final sales price on buyer incentives in Q1 2026, which works out to $63,000 in concessions on a $450,000 home, in Sun Belt markets where inventory has piled up. That is not a Seattle story. At 3.44 months of supply we are still in a seller's market. The Sun Belt is a useful reminder of what a real buyer's market looks like.
Two property types. Two completely different markets.
The defining feature of Seattle real estate in 2026 is not neighborhood. It is property type. Single-family homes and condominiums are moving in opposite directions across virtually every ZIP code in the city. Here is what the NWMLS data shows.
Single-Family Residential Median sale price: Holding firm to up in most ZIPs Months of supply: 1.5 to 2.5 in most neighborhoods DOM: 11 to 24 days in most ZIPs List price received: 100% to 104% in strong ZIPs Verdict: Seller's market | Condominium Median sale price: Down $44,000 citywide YoY Months of supply: 4.0 to 12.0 across ZIPs DOM: 31 to 73 days in most ZIPs List price received: 97% to 99% in most ZIPs Verdict: Buyer's market |
The condo softening is not uniform across the city but it is consistent. Downtown ZIP codes like 98101 have hit 12 months of supply, meaning at the current pace of sales it would take a full year to sell through existing inventory. Queen Anne condos are at 7.7 months. Greenwood at 6.0. These are buyer's market numbers.
West Seattle's 98116 is sitting at 1.5 months of supply, one of the tightest readings in the city. Closed sales there jumped 56.5% year over year in May. That is not a softening market.
The driver: rate sensitivity hits condos harder because the buyer pool is primarily first-time purchasers who need financing. Move-up buyers purchasing single-family homes often bring equity from a prior sale and are less exposed to rate swings. As long as rates stay in the mid-6s, this divergence is likely to persist. Read the full June market breakdown from The Madrona Group.
Source: NWMLS Local Market Update, May 2026, Seattle King County
King County Median $875K May 2026 · all property types | Active Listings 21,381 NWMLS area · 2026 high | Pending Sales +7.7% Month over month · May |
Source: NWMLS May 2026 Market Snapshot
Median Single-Family Sale Prices: 2026 vs 2025
We compared average median sale prices for single-family homes, January through May 2026 vs the same period in 2025. The dollar figures show exactly how much the typical sold home's price moved in each neighborhood. Click any neighborhood to explore current listings on our site.
Source: NWMLS, Jan-May 2026 vs Jan-May 2025 average median sale price, single-family residential, King County. Click any neighborhood to explore current listings.
The pattern holds across neighborhoods: relative value and strong fundamentals are appreciating, while the high end is softening. Queen Anne and Magnolia are down $112,000 at the top of the price range. North Seattle east of I-5 is up $109,000 at the mid-market. These are not minor differences. They are the difference between a well-timed move and a poorly timed one.
On the ground in King County
Two new listings this week, one in Ballard and one in Bothell, joining four active properties across Seattle and South King. The Bothell condo at 14915 38th Dr SE went pending, which tracks with what we are seeing broadly: well-priced, well-conditioned product is still moving even in a softer condo environment.
The property-type split is real and we are feeling it. Single-family open houses are drawing traffic. Correctly priced SFH in strong neighborhoods is still generating competition. Condo sellers who are pricing to last year's market are sitting. The buyers are there. They just have options now and they know it.
If you own a condo and are thinking about selling, the conversation we need to have is about pricing strategy, not timing. The market will not bail out an overpriced listing right now. Reach out and we can walk through the numbers together.
What you own matters more than where you own it right now.
If you own a single-family home in Seattle, 2026 has been relatively kind. Supply is tight, demand is steady, and prices are holding or improving in most neighborhoods. If you own a condo, the market has given back $44,000 in median sale price over the past year and inventory is piling up in some ZIP codes.
For buyers, the condo market is the most favorable it has been in years. Months of supply ranging from 4 to 12 across Seattle ZIP codes means you have time, options, and negotiating leverage that simply did not exist 18 months ago.
The market has not broken down. It has sorted itself. Know which side of the sort you are on before you make a move.
The World Cup is here. Seattle just introduced itself to the planet.
FIFA World Cup 2026 kicked off June 11 and Seattle is hosting six matches at Lumen Field through July. Fan celebrations are free and distributed across the city along the Unity Loop: Seattle Center, Waterfront Park, Pacific Place, and Victory Hall in SODO. The Sounders are running a floating watch party on Elliott Bay at Pier 62 with an 18x30 foot LED wall set against the Olympic Mountains.
The real estate angle: events like this have a long tail. When 200,000 international visitors spend a week in a city and fall in love with it, some of them come back. Some eventually buy here. SODO, Pioneer Square, Capitol Hill, and the waterfront corridor are all worth watching over the next 12 to 18 months.
If you have not made it down to the waterfront this week, go. It is the best version of this city on display.
Five links worth your time this week
Seattle single-family median hit $1,025,000 in May, even as months of supply reached a 14-year high
Puget Sound permitted just 14,000 housing units in 2025, down from 32,000 at peak. A decade low.
Wondering which side of the market you are on?
Whether you own a condo or a single-family home, the strategy right now is very different. We run this analysis for clients every week. If you want a specific read on your property, your neighborhood, or a ZIP code you are considering, reach out. No pitch, just data.
Or reach us directly at [email protected]
Henry Shim Group at Windermere Real Estate Midtown
1920 N 34th St, Seattle, WA 98103 | (206) 856-8387
All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently reviewed and verified. Data sourced from NWMLS, Mortgage News Daily, and other public sources. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. © 2026 Henry Shim Group. All rights reserved.
