Akash was down in the Bay Area last weekend for a wedding. Almost every conversation eventually landed in the same place: how is the Seattle market doing? His answer was the same every time. Two questions back: are you buying or selling, and which Seattle market are you talking about?
Because the answer is genuinely different depending on where you are, what you are buying, and what price point you are playing in. A well priced single family home in Ballard or Queen Anne is still moving fast. A condo that is chasing last year's comps is sitting. The market is not up or down. It is segmented, and knowing which segment you are in is the whole game right now.
One quick heads up: activity is lighter than usual this week with July 4th falling on Saturday. Fewer showings, fewer offers, fewer competing buyers. If you have been thinking about making a move and have been nervous about competition, low-traffic weeks like this one are actually worth paying attention to.
Six months ago Washington ranked 45th in the country for GDP growth. This quarter it ranked first. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q1 2026 state GDP figures last Thursday, and Washington came in at 4.5% annualized growth, ahead of all 50 states and more than double the national rate of 2.1%.
The driver is the same one it always is here: the information sector. Software, cloud computing, and AI investment, all industries concentrated in and around Seattle, led the rebound. Washington's economy tends to move more sharply than most states when tech runs hot, and right now it is running very hot.
The BEA's official Q1 state GDP data is here if you want to dig into the numbers yourself.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q1 2026 GDP by State, third estimate, released June 25, 2026
The headline says Seattle prices are down. The GDP data says the economy behind those prices is the fastest growing in the country. Hold both of those at once.
A 2.3% year over year price dip in a market running on the nation's strongest state economy is not a warning sign. It is a breather. The same tech sector that drove prices up sharply in 2024 stumbled in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, and prices cooled with it. Now that sector just posted its strongest quarter in years, and inventory is being absorbed without prices cracking.
If you are buying, this window, more inventory than a year ago, rates off their peak, prices not yet responding to the GDP rebound, may look pretty good in twelve months.
If you are selling, price for the market today, not the one from two springs ago. Sellers who do that are still moving homes in 8 days or less. The ones holding out for 2024 prices are still holding.
750,000 people just fell in love with this city. Knockout rounds start today.
Seattle's World Cup group stage wrapped with numbers that surprised even the people who planned it: 750,000 fan zone visits in under two weeks, a new all time light rail ridership record, and three of Sea-Tac's busiest travel days ever. The city did not just host the tournament. It leaned all the way in.
Local businesses near Seattle Stadium are feeling it too, with some reporting multiples of their normal daily volume on match days. Pioneer Square, SODO, and the waterfront are the neighborhoods that absorbed this energy, and the ones worth watching over the next year.
Belgium's national team has been based in Renton all tournament, training at the Sounders' own Performance Centre just 12 miles from downtown Seattle. Egypt set up camp in Spokane at Gonzaga. Two national teams, living and working in Washington state for a month. That is not a coincidence, it is a signal about how the world sees this region right now.
The broader knockout stage started June 29, and the USA's Round of 32 kicks off today, July 1, right here at Seattle Stadium. A Round of 16 match follows on July 6 that could bring the USMNT back to a home crowd in Seattle if they advance. If you have been on the fence about catching a match, this is the week.
Rates came down from last month's spike. Here is where they landed this week.
30-Yr Fixed (MND) 6.52% July 1, 2026 · barely moved in 5 days | Seattle YoY Home Values -2.3% S&P Cotality Case-Shiller · released June 30 |
The 30 year fixed has barely moved in five days, holding right around 6.52% after pulling back from the 6.65% spike that followed June's hawkish Fed meeting. MND notes day-over-day changes of just 0.02% or less all week, with rates edging cautiously lower. Not a dramatic move, but the right direction.
The Case-Shiller index, released Tuesday, put Seattle home values down 2.3% year over year, consistent with what NWMLS and Redfin have both shown for the city. It sounds like a negative headline until you put it next to Washington's GDP number above. The economy here is growing at twice the national rate. Markets with that kind of underlying strength do not stay soft for long.
King County has more homes on the market than it did a year ago. Prices barely moved. Go figure.
The NWMLS May snapshot shows active listings across the 27 county region hit 21,381, up 16.8% year over year and the highest level recorded so far this year. Buyers had access to nearly 2,800 more homes than they did just one month earlier.
King County Active listings: 6,961, up 13.7% YoY Median price: $875,000, up 1.2% YoY Months of supply: 3.44, up from 2.8 | NWMLS Service Area Active listings: 21,381, up 16.8% YoY Median price: $650,000, down 0.8% YoY Pending sales: up 7.7% from April |
Closed sales in King County ticked up from April to May, 2,053 to 2,074, even as year over year sales remain down about 5%. Buyers are not sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to break. They are shopping a bigger pool of homes and finding the ones that work.
A balanced market is generally considered 4 to 6 months of supply. King County at 3.44 months is still firmly a seller's market on paper, just a noticeably less extreme one than the sub 2 month readings of a couple years ago. That gap between "technically still a seller's market" and "feels different to actually shop in" is exactly where we are right now.
Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service, May 2026 Market Snapshot, King County and 27 county service area
On the ground in Seattle and King County
The Bothell condo we have been tracking the last two issues closed on June 24 at $529,000. It is the cleanest proof point we have right now for this week's data: priced right, a well positioned condo in this market still moves, even with inventory rising all around it.
We also just listed a studio on Queen Anne with direct downtown access and skyline views, take a look here. The kind of location that holds buyer interest no matter what the broader inventory numbers are doing.
On the buy side, we put two buyers under contract this week. Both had been watching the market for months. Both moved the moment the right listing, at the right price, showed up. That pattern, patient buyers ready to act fast on the right home, is exactly what we would expect in a market with more inventory but stable pricing.
8 active HSG listings this week
Just listed:
The rest of what we're selling:
- A North Bellevue one bedroom at Continental Condominiums, steps from Bellevue Square, $499,900
- A Ballard three bedroom with room to grow, $769,900
- A Bothell four bedroom on 167th, $999,900
- A second Bothell four bedroom on 183rd, $1,069,900
- A West Seattle three bedroom on 18th Ave, $749,900
- A Federal Way four bedroom priced to move, $649,950
- A West Seattle NR3 lot, build your own, $99,000
Just sold:
- The Bothell condo closed June 24 at $529,000, proof that priced right still moves in this market
Listings we like right now:
- An undisclosed address in Washington Park on 1.6 acres, 11,786 sqft, $45,000,000, the most private estate listing in Seattle right now
- An Edwin Ivey-designed estate on Federal Ave E in North Capitol Hill, 11,520 sqft on over half an acre, $8,750,000, architecture that earns the price tag
- A Laurelhurst mid-century originally designed by Perry Johanson, a founding partner of NBBJ, later reimagined by Rerucha Studio, 2,794 sqft, $3,150,000, two architectural legacies in one house
More homes on the market means more decisions to make. Let's make them together.
Whether you are weighing a move now that there is more to choose from, or wondering what your home is worth in a market with more competition, we run this analysis for clients every week. No pitch, just data.
Or reach us directly at [email protected]
Henry Shim Group at Windermere Real Estate Midtown
1920 N 34th St, Seattle, WA 98103 | (206) 856-8387
All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently reviewed and verified. Data sourced from NWMLS, Redfin, Mortgage News Daily, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller, and other public sources. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. © 2026 Henry Shim Group. All rights reserved.
