Meta Layoffs Hit 1,395. Nobu Picks Bellevue. What It Means for Seattle Real Estate.

The setup. Three things are hitting the Seattle market simultaneously right now. Tech layoffs are pushing more sellers to list. Homeowners locked in at 3% are finally accepting 6%+ as the new normal and listing anyway. Seasonal April-May supply is layering on top of both.

Force #1 just got a name. Meta's WARN notice cut 699 jobs in Bellevue, 259 across two Seattle offices, 206 in Redmond, and 231 remote workers across the state. Engineering and product roles took the hardest hit.

What this means. We're not at peak inventory yet. More is coming. But the right house at the right price is still selling in 7-14 days. The wrong price sits 90+. That gap is widening fast.

Where rates sit. The 30-year fixed is at 6.61% today per Mortgage News Daily, basically flat on the week. MBA expects rates to hover near 6.50% through the rest of 2026. Fannie Mae's calling for 6.30%. Neither forecast has rates breaking under 6% this year.

The Fed and the lock-in. The Fed held short-term rates steady at its last meeting, citing ongoing inflation pressure including energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. April CPI came in at 3.8% annual, the hottest reading since May 2023. 82% of American homeowners are still sitting on sub-6% mortgages, but that lock-in effect is slowly cracking as life events force moves regardless of rate environment.

NWMLS April snapshot. King County median dropped to $859,000, down 5.3% from $907,000 a year ago. Active listings hit 6,163, up nearly 30% from April 2025. Months of inventory moved to 3.0, the closest King County has been to a balanced market since 2019.

Eastside watch. 699 of those Meta cuts were Bellevue. Add 206 in Redmond and that's roughly two-thirds of the layoffs concentrated where Meta employees actually bought houses. Spring District, Bridle Trails, and Sammamish inventory worth tracking over the next 60 days.

Tech sellers are calling earlier. The phone started ringing the morning the Meta news broke. None of the calls have been panicked. All of them have been running the math, asking what their place would list for now versus waiting six months. We expect more of these calls over the next two weeks as severance terms get clearer.

Buyers have moved on from waiting. Our active buyers have accepted the rate environment. They're not waiting for 5%. They're focused on finding the right home, getting in, and refinancing when rates eventually move. The hesitant ones are sitting on the sidelines watching inventory pile up around them.

Our deal flow. We closed two homes last week, one in Bothell and an off-market deal in Shoreline. We have four active listings across Federal Way, West Seattle, and Bothell, plus three new listings with interior updates coming to market soon. If you have buyers in the $529K to $749K range, reach out and we'll get you in early.

The deal. Nobu, the global luxury brand co-founded by Robert De Niro and chef Nobu Matsuhisa, is taking over Avenue Bellevue. The two residential towers get rebranded as Nobu Residences, the brand's first U.S. residential project. A 10,000 sq ft Nobu restaurant, the Pacific Northwest's first, opens in 2027. Roughly 35% of the residences have already sold.

The brand premium is real. Branded residences pull a documented price premium. Nobu Toronto sold out in three months at the city's highest average price point. Nobu Abu Dhabi sold a penthouse for $37.5M. The "Nobu effect" is well-known in luxury circles, and Bellevue just bought into it.

Why this matters. This is the kind of brand commitment that doesn't happen unless the long-term thesis on Bellevue is intact. Worth holding next to the Meta headline this week.