Seattle In Numbers Vol. 3: 5 Days to Sell in Phinney Ridge

Seattle is two markets right now and we are seeing it firsthand.

First time buyers are getting squeezed hard. Rates in the high 6s, prices that have not corrected enough to make the math work, and competition for anything entry level that does show up. It is a tough spot and we will not pretend otherwise.

But our second and third time buyers are moving. They have equity, they have clarity on what they want, and when the right home shows up in the right neighborhood they are not waiting. The neighborhood data we are sharing this week tells that story clearly.

Numbers first, narrative second. That is what this newsletter is for.

Mortgage rates hit a 9-month high this week at 6.68%. Seattle just ranked number one in the nation for home price declines year over year. Single family homes in Phinney Ridge and Queen Anne sold in a median of 5 days in May. We pulled that number ourselves from NWMLS.

The market is not broken. It is selective. Buyers have more choices than they have had in years and they are using that optionality deliberately. They walk past homes that are not ready. When the right one hits, priced correctly, presented well, and marketed professionally, they move immediately.

Here is what the neighborhood data shows for May 2026:

Rates went from sub-6% in February to 6.68% today. A 70 basis point jump in three months. These neighborhoods did not slow down. Queen Anne actually got faster. The demand is there. It is just concentrated on the homes that earn it.

The Strait of Hormuz is keeping mortgage rates elevated at 6.68%.

Since the Iran conflict escalated in March, international investors who normally buy mortgage backed securities have been rotating into gold and equities. Less demand for MBS means higher yields, which means higher rates for buyers. That is why rates jumped from sub-6% in February to today even though the Fed has not moved once. This is not a Fed story. It is a global capital flows story.

The Fed is not moving anytime soon regardless. Inflation is still running above target and the FOMC minutes showed continued hawkish posture. The next meaningful policy signal will not come until late summer at the earliest.

One national headline worth watching: Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO Greg Abel made housing his first major acquisition, buying homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion on May 31. Smart long-term money betting the housing cycle is near a bottom, not a crash.

King County median single family price came in at $975,000 in May, down 1% from a year ago. Months of supply hit 3.44, the highest reading of 2026 and still below balanced market territory of 4 to 6 months. Closed sales were up 9.5% month over month. The market is not frozen. It is adjusting.

The condo picture is meaningfully softer. King County condo median came in at $540,000 in May, down 5.3% year over year. Rising HOA fees stacked on top of 6.68% rates have made the monthly payment math genuinely difficult for buyers. Capitol Hill condos sat a median of 20 days in May. SFH in the same neighborhood sold in 16. The gap between property types is only widening.

Homes priced correctly are still moving. Homes priced to last year's market are sitting and resetting. Every new sale sets a lower comp floor. For sellers, the cost of waiting is higher than most realize.

We closed two transactions in Phinney Ridge this spring. One we never listed. We approached the seller directly because we had a buyer ready and both parties were better served without a public listing. The other we listed ourselves and had an accepted offer in four days. That is what the market looks like for well-located, well-presented single family homes in Seattle right now. The headlines say the market is broken. Our transaction history says otherwise.

This is not a test the market moment. In a high-inventory environment every new listing and every sale resets the comp floor. A home that is not priced right and show-ready from day one loses ground quickly. For sellers, acting sooner usually beats waiting. Prices are drifting, not crashing, but each month of new data sets a lower baseline.

We went pending on our Bothell condo listing at 14915 38th Dr SE. The right product at the right price is still moving even in a market with rising supply. Condos in the $500s with good layouts and reasonable HOAs are finding buyers.

Post-inspection negotiation is now standard. In almost every transaction we are running right now, buyers are coming back after inspection with asks and sellers are meeting them. A year ago that was rare. Today it is the norm. If you are selling, budget for it. If you are buying, use it.

The Seattle NBA push is real. Oak View Group has been in active talks, Climate Pledge Arena is essentially NBA-ready, and momentum has been building for months. If a franchise lands here, the question we keep getting asked is: where do the players live?

History gives us a clear answer. Gary Payton lived in a Bellevue mansion during his Sonics years. It later sold for $6.76 million and became known as The Glove Estate. Shawn Kemp and NBA legend Bill Russell both called Mercer Island home. Ray Allen built a 10,630 square foot estate on the Sammamish Plateau with a full-size basketball court, putting green, and pool on 4.5 acres.

Every one of those addresses is in the neighborhoods the tax flight story says everyone is leaving. Bellevue. Mercer Island. The Sammamish Plateau. An NBA roster of 15 players, many earning $30 to 50 million annually, would create genuine demand for Medina waterfront estates and Clyde Hill compounds that the current market simply is not seeing.

The Sonics may or may not come back. But right now, with prices softer than they have been in years, a serious buyer could get into Mercer Island or Clyde Hill at a meaningful discount to peak. The window is open.

Weekly Seattle real estate data, neighborhood analysis, and ground truth from Henry Shim Group. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.

The data we publish every week is the same data we use to price and position our clients. If you want a straight read on what your home is worth or what a home you are considering is really worth, we are happy to talk.