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Henry Shim Group Vol. 2 · June 3, 2026 |
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The Number -2.5%Seattle's year-over-year home price decline in March 2026 — the steepest drop of any major U.S. metro. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index confirmed what buyers have been feeling for months: Seattle is correcting faster than anywhere else in the country. While the national index is still up 0.7% year-over-year, Seattle is moving in the opposite direction. New York, Chicago, and Boston are posting gains. We are not. But that number does not tell the whole story. Seattle is not one market right now — it is two. Turnkey single-family homes in desirable neighborhoods are still moving in under a week, often above list price. Condos, townhomes, and homes that need work or are presented poorly are sitting. The correction is real, but it is not uniform. Location and condition separate the homes that move from the ones that sit. Phinney Ridge is a good example. See what we mean below. |
National
Rates tick up. Iran talks stall.
6.75%
- 30-yr fixed (MND): 6.75%
- Freddie Mac weekly: 6.53%
- 15-yr fixed: ~5.92%
- Fed funds rate: 3.50 to 3.75% (held)
- Next FOMC: June 16 to 17
Rates jumped Monday after Iran suspended peace negotiations. The daily average briefly hit a 10-month high of 6.75%. Freddie Mac's weekly survey came in at 6.53%, the highest in nine months. Pending home sales fell for the second straight week. The Fed holds in June but a hike is back on the table if inflation stays elevated. April CPI printed at 3.8%, the highest since May 2023.
Seattle / King County
More homes. Fewer buyers.
+30%
- Active listings (KC): 6,163
- YoY inventory change: +30%
- Statewide inventory: +28.4% YoY
- Closed sales (KC): -3.4% YoY
- Median days on market: 31 (up from 27)
- Income needed to buy: $219,000/yr
Inventory is surging faster here than anywhere else in the country. King County hit 6,163 active listings, up 30% from a year ago. Single-family homes are sitting 4 more days than last April. Buyers haven't disappeared, but they are refusing to overpay, and sellers are adjusting.
What We're Seeing
Phinney Ridge
2026 Year to Date · 47 Sales
While Seattle headlines lean negative, Phinney Ridge is running its own race. Redfin scores it one of the most competitive neighborhoods in the city. Homes here average 6 days on market and sell at 4% above list price. Median prices are up 32.9% year over year. In 2026, we have had two stellar closings in Phinney Ridge, totaling over $4.3 million in closed volume. In a market full of bad news, Phinney Ridge is the counter-argument.
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Avg Sale Price $1.35M |
Days on Market 6 |
Sold Under 30 Days 98% |
Our Deals In Phinney Ridge
Where our deals rank in 2026 · out of 47 sales
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#1 $2,498,000 7 bed / 5 bath · 4,590 sf · 0 DOM |
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#5 $1,895,000 4 bed / 3.5 bath · 3,110 sf · 4 DOM |
Plain English Take
Seattle is correcting, and that's an opportunity if you know where to look.
The headlines will say "prices falling fastest in the nation." That's technically accurate and also incomplete. The buyers who are winning right now are the ones who understand what this market actually allows — and that list is longer than most people think.
Connor and Garbo, Shoreline. Off-market purchase. We were able to negotiate over $5,000 in seller concessions before close.
Nikita and Irina, Victory Heights. New construction. We negotiated nearly $30,000 off the purchase price, $20,000 in seller credits, and got the builder to extend the standard 1-year warranty to 2 years and the 5-year structural warranty to 10 years. Close to $50,000 in combined value on a new build, where builders rarely budge. This market gives buyers real leverage if you know how to use it.
Beyond the Market
Seattle Is About to Host the World
Six FIFA World Cup matches come to Lumen Field between June 15 and July 6. Nearly 150,000 fans will need lodging across Seattle's matches, with 750,000 total visitors expected during the tournament window.
Hotels are underperforming. Nearly 80% of Seattle hotel operators are tracking below booking forecasts. The demand is real but it is flowing to short-term rentals. Seattle's 4,325 STR listings are filling the gaps hotels cannot. Airbnb says some Seattle hosts could earn up to $11,000 during the tournament, and demand in World Cup host cities is already up 80% year over year. Seattle ranks 5th among the priciest World Cup cities for Airbnb at $248 per night average.
The real estate angle: Neighborhoods closest to Lumen Field and Link light rail, including Pioneer Square, SoDo, Capitol Hill, and Queen Anne, are seeing the strongest STR pressure. Deloitte projects the average Seattle STR host earns $3,800 over the full tournament. For homeowners who have never listed, the city permit runs about $75 and Airbnb is offering $750 to first-time hosts who complete a stay before July 31.
Worth Reading
- Seattle home prices post nation's biggest drop as inventory surges — Axios
- Home Prices Are Dropping in Seattle as Buyers Refuse To Overpay — Realtor.com
- Seattle homebuyers need $219,000 income despite modest affordability gains — MyNorthwest
- Hopes of World Cup tourist boom feeling shaky in Seattle — Washington State Standard
- Seattle approves design for 170-unit housing development near Fremont — The Urbanist
Questions about buying or selling in this market? Let's talk.
Henry Shim Group · Windermere Real Estate Midtown · Seattle, WA
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
